The growth of online retailing and changing consumer patterns will ultimately affect the way valuers appraise retail properties but not until investors themselves start to change attitudes, according to John Welham, head of European retail investment at CB Richard Ellis. ‘Valuers are not yet reflecting the different level of impact internet is having on retailers as investors still tend to focus primarily on covenant strength and longevity of income.’

At the same time, it is still too soon to draw any hard conclusions, he adds. ‘People try to make broad statements about the impact of internet on sales, but it’s really quite complex. Some consumers do research online before a shop purchase, others buy on line after going to the store and seeing the goods. Both work for different people at different times, there’s no clear answer as to which trend will dominate. It’s also far too simplistic to say that one sector will be hit harder than the other, or that a certain sector is doomed. Different markets will be affected differently.’

A case in point is the electrical goods industry. ‘The electronics sector in the UK has been hit very hard,’ he notes, pointing to the scaling back of retail chains such as Dixons. ‘But in Germany it’s still pretty healthy. Brands like Mediamarkt and Saturn are still expanding in high streets, shopping centres and retail parks.’

While the electrical goods sector is widely expected to suffer from the growth of e-commerce, at present some investors in retail property still put these brands on a pedestal, Welham adds. As a result, the effect on valuations is more likely to be positive than negative: ‘It has been proven that investors are willing to pay more for a centre with these retailers than without.’

Another sector where internet has taken a big bite out of sales is the book trade. ‘The arrival of Amazon has definitely had a big impact in the UK,’ Welham notes, citing the disappearance of Borders Books from the UK. ‘Book retailing in the UK has really suffered. But in Germany it is a different story. Book retailers such as Thalia and Mayerische Buchandelung continue to be important retailers in high streets and shopping centres. This is an interesting sector to watch, especially as Amazon has just reported that it now sells more e books for its Kindle devise than paperbacks.'

Welham also rejects the idea that the future lies only in big regional shopping centres and that retail parks and smaller secondary schemes will be dead in five years time. He points to strong demand for space from non-food retailers in the UK such as Asda Living, Wilkinsons, Poundland and Argos. ‘They’re all struggling to get space out of town. Kingfisher is another: it’s seeking to expand in Turkey, Poland and Russia. ‘Who’s right? There will be some common ground, but the trends haven’t established themselves yet.’